MINIMAL EFFECTS
Those homeowners also may have been eager to lock in their pricing, fearful of a material shortage or an increase in costs due to demand during the rebuild. According to Jackson, lumber prices jumped about 30% after the Cedar Fire in 2003. However, he says, “that was industrywide — it didn’t have to do with our local fires.” He doesn’t expect an increase even approaching that magnitude this time.
Neither does Butch Bernhardt, director of information services at the Western Wood Products Association. “We don’t believe the rebuilding activity in the fire areas will generate any immediate demand for lumber that can’t be satisfied with current supplies available from mills,” he says. Bernhardt adds that the industry would have plenty of time to ramp up production if needed. “Based on experiences after natural disasters in recent years, it takes a while for insurance claims, building permits, and other issues to be worked out,” he says. “So the rebuilding activity won’t be immediate and may stretch out over a couple of years.”
Remodelers in the area can also expect code changes. Winans recalls that materials choices were limited after the Oakland Firestorm, and that some architectural features, such as large overhanging eaves or projecting decks that aren’t closed underneath, were barred. After the Cedar Fires, certain jurisdictions in the San Diego area changed their codes to require, for example, that exterior wall surfaces be noncombustible.
THE BRIGHT SIDE
Today, 16 years after the Oakland Firestorm, Winans notes that many of the rebuilt houses are full of door and window leaks. “They built some pretty crummy homes,” he says. Winans points out that the places where fires tend to spread are not flat areas, but slopes — where wind drives rain horizontally. Challenging building conditions mixed with inexperienced or lowball contractors is a bad combination for homeowners, but it means that contractors who choose not to rebuild houses in the area may eventually end up remodeling the structures later.
Speaking in the days after the fires, even Riordan — who lost his own home in the disaster — was able to find a silver lining in the hazy clouds of smoke that still lingered over the city. “Four years ago, San Diego was really booming,” he says. “The remodeling industry was booming, the new-home industry was booming.” So when the rebuilding effort increased the demand for resources, there were minor shortages for concrete, labor, and the like.
That’s not the case now. “New-home building has pretty much stopped in San Diego,” he says, “and the remodeling business has been slow for a lot of people. The timing for the consumer and the contractor is much better this time around.”
Stand and Be Counted — Or Else! Not keeping a close eye on your mail this month could end up costing you $5,000.
That amount represents the fine for not filling out and returning the 2007 Economic Census form, which should arrive in businesses’ mailboxes starting in mid-December. Conducted every five years, the Economic Census provides data that helps the government make informed decisions about financial policy, according to Census spokesman Bob Marske.
Not every company will receive a form; companies with no paid employees are completely off the hook, and forms will be sent to only a representative sample of firms with just one or two employees. All other companies should plan on filing their forms no later than the February 12, 2008 deadline. As was the case in 2002, online filing will be available — unique user IDs and passwords will be included in the information packet that will accompany the paper version of the forms.
Marske notes that the information gleaned from the Economic Census is useful to business owners looking to expand their services or move into a new market. To access information from the 2002 Economic Census and for more information on the 2007 version, visit business.census.gov.