But while the construction sector should see job creation as the rebuild begins, many other industries will experience the opposite, because many commercial and office buildings were damaged or destroyed, and those still standing may not have power for several weeks. Nor will there be employees or customers living in the affected areas for some time. CNN.com quoted John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia Bank and former senior economist for the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee, as saying “I think Katrina’s put the kibosh on this whole thing. You’re going to lose so many jobs. It’s going to take time to get this all back up.”
August employment numbers released in early September by the Department of Labor are based on a mid-month survey conducted before Hurricane Katrina struck. The September numbers, available in early October, should paint a more accurate picture of the storm’s impact on the job market.
With the hurricane season lasting through the end of November, and NOAA’s early-August revised hurricane forecast predicting even more storm activity than originally expected, there’s a very real fear that another major hurricane would shatter the economy. Speaking on that possibility, Hans Olsen, chief investment officer for Bingham Legg Advisers was quoted by CNN.com: “I don’t know how you would avoid recession in that environment.”
On a positive note, Breithaupt says he hasn’t yet seen the warning signs of a recession or a slowdown in remodeling activity that he has experienced in the past. “After 9/11,” Breithaupt says, referring to the terrorist attacks on the U.S. in 2001, “for two or three weeks, no one would sign anything.” But he’s closed several contracts since the storm hit. “There hasn’t been that ‘sky-is-falling’ mentality.”